Getting caught in the Statistics — A Blast.TV Story

When i do any analysis or write any article, I ask myself on what sort of purpose am I doing it for? For me, the main intention is to teach people and show people how indepth Counter-Strike is. Statistics are tools that help this but they do not paint the entire picture.

One article recently from Blast.Tv highlights the flaws and pitfalls of relying on said analysis on just statistics. There is much more that goes into CS2 than just who gets the most kills or most damage or who clutches the best.

The Blast.Tv article starts about how the Flyquest could become the next Renegades after becoming the first Australian Team to make and win a playoff game in ESL Pro League since 2018.

The start of the article sets up that they need to follow in the footsteps of Renegades to look internationally. I’d highly recommend that no team ever follows the footsteps of another.

If you cannot make your own team identity and try to copy anothers, you are doomed from the start.

Look at all the failed Brazilian teams that have tried to follow the footsteps of SK Gaming? Just because something works, doesn’t mean you have to emulate it.

There could be a core reason on why a specific person was selected or strategy style adopted. By simply copying it or emulating it, you’ll never truly understand it and it’ll never truly reach its fruition.

I mean Moneyball is one concept where people try to build a team by looking at statistics but most of these sorts of teams in practice often fall apart at key junctures.

So what are we chopping and changing?

The article suggests +jks, +nawwk and +jkaem which jks and Jkaem are two ex-Renegades players. They also suggest to -vexite, -liazz and -alistair.

Alistair has been highlighted as one to replace as due to low KDR and ADR. However, this is where you get caught in the statistics and tangled in its curious web.

What is rarely highlighted is his flash assists, Alistair has a high amount. This means he sacrifices his potential ADR and KDR to increase his teams ADR and KDR.

He allows his team to gather information and secure kills which is incredibly important in CS2. Jame fulfills that same role but Alistair is more aggressive compared to Jame.

They compare slaxz-, sl3nd and story to Alistair. Those 3 play way differently to Alistair. They highlight slaxz- being a reason on why M80 has risen to great heights. I highly disagree with this assessment as the most recent elevation for M80 came from -mankz +s1n not -wolfy +slaxz-.

The change in IGL as well as the rifling core of malbs, Swisher and reck has really catapulted this roster not purely the awper.

Caught in a web….

The article highlights the ADR/KDR against top 20 teams for both Liazz and Vexite. What needs to be considered is the roles that Liazz and Vexite play and the frequency that they play these teams.

Flyquest do not play against top 5 or top 20 teams very often meanwhile Apeks do. Hence the stats look consistent for Jkaem/Nawwk but they’ll look wildly high or wildly low for Flyquest. In this instance, they are wildly low for Vexite and Liazz.

The sample size is way too small to simply say replace Vexite and Liazz. Also, not to mention that Vexite and Liazz have played these teams under Grayhound before dexter joined the roster. Grayhound’s quality was much lesser due to having no true In-game Leader.

Comparing Hooxi v Vexite is just embarassing, Hooxi can play poorly because he has Niko, Hunter, Nexa and monesy. Niko and monesy are 2 of the top 10 players.

Vexite and Hooxi play two different roles. Vexite plays entry therefore if he is outaimed by good players (monesy and Niko for example), his ADR/KDR is going to look awful.

As you can see by highlighting lower statistics that you fall into pitfalls. Flyquest have been improving from strength to strength since their Asia RMR failure.

They almost made playoffs in Chengdu and made playoffs in ESL Pro League. Suggesting a roster move before you even let the roster reach their ceiling will kill team morale and momentum.

Missing the forest for the trees

In the article, they do consider that Jkaem is 30 and towards the end of his career. However, they do not really consider that Jkaem would have to be replaced in 1–2 years compared to Vexite and Liazz who have years of potential.

Also, they need to consider whether the players gel with each other. Why do I highlight this? Apeks had put their entire team on their transfer list and Styko had highlighted in his Youtube Video that there were issues in the team that weren’t not resolved fully and were essential bandaid solutions.

It could have been possible that there were issues with Jkaem and Nawwk (the article was released before they both joined Bleed). Obviously, we now know that there are no issues but you need to consider this possibility.

You also need to consider the possibility that replacing more than 3 players is basically overhauling the entire core. You are tearing down structures that have been worked on for aeons. You’re essentially cutting down a flower before it even has a chance to bloom.

You know which team did this? Cloud 9. Where is Cloud 9 at the moment? Rebuilding their entire roster AGAIN. Why? Let’s go through their roster changes.

First, -interz +buster, an absolute bust. -nafany -buster +electronic +perfecto, also a bust because it lead to the eventual -shir0 +boombl4. Why did this happen? You replaced interz and nafany based on stats, you sent a message that made shir0 feel uncomfortable that he could be replaced as well.

You turn the team environment from a place of trust, friendship and posivity to every man for themselves. You will see selfish play for the sake of not being cut or removed.

A championship team requires the team to play with each other, for each other and by each other. There needs to be a positive growth mindset otherwise the team will fall apart.

shir0 took that offer with Spirit because he trusted that Spirit would not make such a decision. Their previous roster with Chopper was given ample time and opportunity before they were cut and replaced by Spirit Academy. Cloud 9 were making changes like the author of the blast.tv article would make.

Cloud 9 never got to actually bloom after Covid. Cloud 9 thought it was a good idea to import Navi into their lineup without s1mple, without b1t and without blade. Which you know were the three core ingredients on why Navi was successful in the first place.

We don’t need to go through on what happened to Cloud 9 next. Everybody knows that they’ve literally benched everyone and it is going to take time for Cloud 9 to build a team (or ruin a current team).

We have examples of why you shouldn’t carry out extreme changes due to short term results. The above example for Cloud 9 should be the prime example of it.

This is where armchair analysis misses the forest for the trees. They do not understand that you are managing human beings not robots. This is why performance coaches, psychologists and other support staff are just as important as the coach.

There is much more to CS2 than just statistics, statistics and statistics. There are roles that need to be played inside and outside of the servers.

All players need to believe in the system, all players need to know the system and know how to adapt it when needed. These players need a coach that will be able to push them to the next level.

One player that I’d like to highlight would be Rush. His attitude of doing any role to help his team succeed has been applauded by various teams. It probably played a huge part in NA’s only CS2 Major to date.

What I think…

CS2 is more of a mental game of chess rather than a mechanical game of statistics. Once you figure out the mental game, the mechanical game just works itself out.

I’d argue that statistics are a lagging indicator, watch Flyquest’s statistics start trending upwards from their recent successes. Don’t tell them that you got it from me.